Rep Attrition Risk Calculator
A weighted scoring model that combines tenure-curve risk, ramp trajectory versus plan, and manager-observed mindset signals into a single 0-100 flight-risk score per rep — plus the one action to take based on what's actually driving that score.
What's inside
- Tenure risk table modeling the sales attrition "bathtub curve" (0-20 pts)
- Ramp Trajectory Index formula and scoring band (0-30 pts)
- 5-signal Mindset Scorecard for managers to rate directly from 1:1 observation (0-50 pts)
- Combined 0-100 Flight-Risk formula
- 4-band risk interpretation: Low / Moderate / High / Severe
- Per-rep scoring worksheet
- Team roll-up table for stack-ranking risk across a full roster
- Driver-identification logic matched to a one-action table
- Monthly refresh rule plus off-cycle re-score triggers
Most attrition surprises managers because they're watching one signal (a bad month, a resignation email) instead of the three that actually compound: where a rep sits on the tenure curve, whether their ramp trajectory has quietly stalled, and what their day-to-day mindset signals have been saying for weeks before they ever update LinkedIn.
Run this per rep, monthly, or the moment any single input changes sharply.
Component A — Tenure Risk (0–20 points)
Sales attrition isn't linear — it follows a "bathtub" shape: risk is highest in the first "reality gap" window and again around the 18–24 month "restlessness" window, with calmer stretches in between.
| Tenure in role | Points |
|---|---|
| 0–3 months | 12 |
| 3–6 months | 20 |
| 6–12 months | 8 |
| 12–18 months | 10 |
| 18–24 months | 16 |
| 24+ months | 6 |
Tenure points: ___ / 20
Component B — Ramp Trajectory (0–30 points)
Ramp Index = (Actual attainment ÷ Expected attainment for their tenure month) × 100
Use your org's own ramp plan for "expected attainment." If you don't have one, use straight-line to-quota by month 6 as the default expectation.
| Ramp Index | Points |
|---|---|
| 100%+ | 0 |
| 85–99% | 8 |
| 70–84% | 18 |
| Under 70% | 30 |
Trend flag: if attainment has declined for 2 consecutive months regardless of band, mark this rep with a flag — treat it as a reason to re-score sooner than your normal cadence, even though it doesn't add extra points to this section.
Ramp points: ___ / 30
Component C — Mindset Scorecard (0–50 points)
Rate each signal from direct observation in 1:1s, pipeline reviews, and team interactions over the last 30 days — not from a single data point.
| Signal | 0 = No concern | 3 = Mild | 6 = Moderate | 10 = Severe/consistent |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rejection Resilience — bounces back same-day after a loss/no-show vs. dwells for days | ||||
| Discretionary Effort — still doing the extra things that got them here vs. visibly throttled back | ||||
| Peer Connection — actively engaged with the team vs. increasingly quiet/withdrawn in huddles and channels | ||||
| Manager-Relationship Trust — brings problems to you proactively vs. gone guarded or scripted in 1:1s | ||||
| Growth Engagement — opts into coaching/skill-building vs. stopped engaging with development conversations |
Mindset points (sum of all 5, each 0/3/6/10): ___ / 50
Total Flight-Risk Score
Tenure ___ + Ramp ___ + Mindset ___ = TOTAL ___ / 100
| Score | Band | Action |
|---|---|---|
| 0–24 | Low | Stable — normal monitoring cadence |
| 25–49 | Moderate | Watch — re-score in 2 weeks, no urgent action yet |
| 50–74 | High | Act this week — retention conversation, not just a coaching 1:1 |
| 75–100 | Severe | Immediate 1:1, escalate to your own manager, treat as a live retention case |
Per-rep worksheet
| Rep | Tenure pts (/20) | Ramp pts (/30) | Mindset pts (/50) | Total (/100) | Band |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Team roll-up
Sort your full roster by Total, highest first. Anyone in High or Severe gets a named action and a named date this week — not a general note to "keep an eye on it."
Find the driver, then take one action
Identify which of the three components contributed the largest share of the rep's score. That's the driver — start there, not with all three.
| Driver | One action |
|---|---|
| Tenure-driven (score mostly from Component A) | Name the tenure window out loud in your next 1:1: "Reps at your stage often hit a reality-gap/restlessness point — how's that landing for you?" Normalizing it defuses it. |
| Ramp-driven (score mostly from Component B) | Run a specific ramp diagnostic this week: pull their pipeline and call activity and find the one stage (prospecting volume, discovery-to-demo conversion, close rate) that's actually behind — don't coach generically on "activity." |
| Mindset-driven (score mostly from Component C, or any single signal at 10) | Address the single highest-scoring signal directly and specifically in your next 1:1 — e.g. if Peer Connection scored 10, don't open with "how's it going," open with "I've noticed you've been quieter in team huddles lately — what's going on?" |
Refresh cadence
Re-score every rep monthly as a baseline. Re-score immediately, off-cycle, for any rep who: misses a forecasted deal by a wide margin, has a manager-relationship rupture, or gets flagged with the ramp-decline trend above.
How to use it
Score every rep on your roster monthly using the three components, rank by total score, and for anyone in the High or Severe band, identify the largest-contributing component and run the matched one action this week.