Forecast Category Definitions Cheat Sheet

Use this to categorize every open opportunity before a forecast call. If you can't check every box in a category, it doesn't belong there — move it down, not up.

Commit

Definition: You would bet your own commission check that this closes by the stated date. No new information reasonably changes the outcome.

Evidence checklist — ALL must be true:

• Verbal or written commitment to buy from the Economic Buyer (not just the champion)
• Pricing/terms agreed — no open commercial negotiation remains
• Paperwork is in signature/procurement process (not "about to start")
• A specific, named close date exists and both sides have referenced it
• No known blocker (legal redline, budget approval, competing priority) is still open

Common mistake: calling it Commit because the rep "feels good" or the champion is enthusiastic. Champion enthusiasm is not Economic Buyer commitment.

Best Case

Definition: Realistic path to close this period, but at least one material variable is still unresolved.

Evidence checklist — must have MOST of:

• Economic Buyer engaged and has confirmed budget exists
• Solution/proposal has been presented and reaction was positive
• A mutual close plan exists with dates, even if not every date has been hit
• Competing alternatives (including "do nothing") have been actively addressed
• At least one open variable remains: final pricing, legal terms, a pending internal approval, or a stakeholder not yet bought in

Common mistake: using Best Case as a parking lot for deals the rep hopes will move — it should mean "genuinely could close this period," not "still alive."

Pipeline

Definition: Qualified, active, being worked — but too early or too uncertain to responsibly forecast a close date this period.

Evidence checklist:

• Deal is qualified (meets your ICP + has a stated business need)
• At least one meaningful conversation has happened in the last 14 days
• No verbal commitment or agreed pricing yet
• Timeline is the rep's estimate, not the buyer's confirmed date

Common mistake: leaving a deal in Pipeline for 2+ quarters without re-qualifying it — if nothing has moved, it may belong in Omitted.

Omitted (or "Excluded")

Definition: In the CRM, but not counted toward this period's number at all — because it's stalled, unqualified for this period, or simply too speculative to include in any confidence-weighted total.

Evidence checklist — ANY of these:

• No stakeholder contact in 30+ days
• Deal is qualified but buyer has explicitly said "not this quarter/year"
• Deal was created but discovery was never completed
• Rep genuinely cannot say when or if this closes

Common mistake: keeping dead deals in Pipeline instead of Omitted to make the top-of-funnel number look bigger. This is the single most common cause of forecast inflation.

The Confidence Math

Most forecast rollups weight each category differently. A common (adjustable) weighting:

`` Weighted Forecast = (Commit × 90%) + (Best Case × 50%) + (Pipeline × 15%) ``

Omitted deals contribute 0% — that's the point of the category.

Category Downgrade Triggers (move a deal down immediately if):

• A previously engaged Economic Buyer goes silent for 10+ business days
• A committed date passes without close (automatic: Commit → Best Case, minimum)
• A competing vendor is newly introduced into the evaluation
• Budget approval that was assumed turns out to be still pending

Quick Decision Tree

`` Is there verbal/written commitment from the Economic Buyer + agreed terms? YES → Is paperwork already moving? YES → COMMIT NO → BEST CASE NO → Has a real conversation happened in the last 14 days? YES → PIPELINE NO → OMITTED ``

Defending Your Category on the Forecast Call — Sample Language

"I have it in Best Case, not Commit, because we have the champion's agreement but the Economic Buyer hasn't confirmed budget in writing yet — I'm getting that this Thursday. I'll move it to Commit the moment that lands."

That's a category defended with evidence, not adjectives ("feels good," "they love us"). If you can't say the equivalent sentence about a deal, it's in the wrong category.