ThinkWork
Team/Manager Calculator/Tool Free

Churn Risk Calculator

Score any account 0–100 across five weighted risk categories: usage decline, support load, champion turnover, engagement, and commercial signals, and get a matched save-play recommendation for whatever band it lands in.

How to use it

Score each of the five categories against the point bands using data from your CRM/product analytics/support tool, add them up for a total out of 100, then run the save play matched to that risk band before the next renewal touchpoint.

What's inside

  • Five scoring categories with point weights
  • Point bands for usage decline (0–30)
  • Point bands for support ticket volume/severity (0–20)
  • Point bands for champion/stakeholder turnover (0–20)
  • Point bands for engagement and responsiveness (0–15)
  • Point bands for commercial/contract signals (0–15)
  • Four risk bands (Low/Medium/High/Critical) with thresholds
  • A matched save-play recommendation for each band
  • Rescoring cadence guidance

Score every at-risk or renewal-approaching account across five weighted categories. Higher score = higher risk.

Category 1, Usage Decline (max 30 pts)

PointsCondition
0Usage flat or growing vs. prior 90-day period
10Usage down 1–15%
20Usage down 16–30%, or a core workflow abandoned
30Usage down more than 30%, or the account has gone effectively dormant

Category 2: Support Ticket Volume & Severity (max 20 pts)

PointsCondition
0Normal ticket volume, no escalations
8Ticket volume up 25%+ vs. baseline, or one unresolved escalation
14Ticket volume up 50%+, or repeated escalations in the last quarter
20Active executive-level escalation, or a ticket explicitly stating intent to cancel

Category 3: Champion / Stakeholder Turnover (max 20 pts)

PointsCondition
0Champion active, engaged, unchanged from last period
10Champion's role changed but they're still at the company and reachable
15Champion has left; no new relationship established yet
20Champion left AND no replacement identified AND no executive relationship exists

Category 4: Engagement & Responsiveness (max 15 pts)

PointsCondition
0Regular contact, responsive, attends scheduled meetings
6Slower responses (5+ business days) or one skipped meeting
10Unresponsive 2+ weeks, or declined the last scheduled QBR/check-in
15Total silence 30+ days across every known contact

Category 5: Commercial / Contract Signals (max 15 pts)

PointsCondition
0Renewal on track, no unusual commercial activity
6Customer has asked about downgrade options, or mentioned a competitor
10Requested a contract or pricing review outside the normal renewal cycle
15Procurement/legal engaged outside renewal window, or a confirmed budget freeze

Scoring Worksheet

Account: __________Score
Usage Decline (/30)___
Support Load (/20)___
Champion Turnover (/20)___
Engagement (/15)___
Commercial Signals (/15)___
Total (/100)___

Risk Bands & Save Plays

BandScoreRecommended Save Play
Low0–20No action beyond standard cadence; rescore next cycle
Medium21–45Proactive check-in within 2 weeks; confirm the specific driver behind any non-zero category before it compounds
High46–70Formal save play: manager-reviewed recovery plan within 5 business days, re-establish champion relationship, quantify value delivered to date, propose a concrete next milestone
Critical71–100Executive escalation same week: pair your exec sponsor with theirs, bring a specific remediation commitment (not just a check-in), and treat renewal timeline as at risk regardless of contract date

Rescoring Cadence

  • Score every account with a renewal inside 120 days at least monthly.
  • Score every account flagged Medium or above every 2 weeks until it returns to Low.
  • Any single-category jump of 15+ points between scoring cycles should trigger a rescore of the whole account immediately, not at the next scheduled cycle.
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